The future shortfall in funding faced by the NHS in England will depend on the level of cost savings the NHS achieves.
The post NHS ‘black hole’ – the size of the funding gap appeared first on Full Fact.
READ MORE
Labour’s devastating defeat in the general election was shocking in its scale, but in retrospect, the signs were there all along. The party was widely perceived to be lacking strong leadership and economic credibility, which it assumed it could overcome with a “35% strategy” of holding onto its core vote from 2010 and grafting on some Liberal Democrat defectors. In the event, it fell far short of even that low target. The party must now decide how to get back in the game.
After its defeat in 2010, Labour spent the entire summer debating the Iraq War and marketisation in the public services during its leadership contest, at a time when the country was fixated on the economic crisis and the coalition was busily pinning the blame for that crisis on the last Labour government.
This time round, Labour must think about voters’ concerns rather than its own preoccupations. There are three key areas where it needs to focus if it is to be in a position to win in 2020: leadership, competence and party image.
Leaders are an increasingly important consideration for voters when deciding how to vote. They need to be seen as credible, competent, trustworthy and in touch with ordinary people’s concerns. Weak leaders can severely damage a party’s prospects because voters have little faith they will be able to deliver on their promises or to deal with crises.
Ed Miliband consistently suffered poor approval ratings and lagged far behind David Cameron in polls of who would make the better prime minister. He was seen as “odd” by voters – not least for the way he challenged his own brother for the Labour leadership in 2010. But he was also seen as weak, and that had a devastating effect on Labour’s electoral prospects.
To give one example from the election campaign, the Conservatives depicted Miliband as being in the pocket of Alex Salmond and as a puppet on a string held by Nicola Sturgeon, in posters warning of the dangers of a Labour minority government dependent on SNP support. The political was made personal, contrasting Miliband’s weakness with the strength of Salmond and Sturgeon. It played on existing concerns about Miliband and questioned whether he could stand up for England’s interests.
These posters could never have worked with, say, Tony Blair in Salmond’s pocket because Blair was widely seen by voters as a strong leader, so the message would have lacked credibility. Labour can withstand these attacks in the future only if its next leader is a strong and credible figure.
Labour’s policies must also be seen as credible, and the party as a whole, competent. Under Miliband, Labour trailed far behind the Conservatives in polls on economic management. It never offered a convincing explanation of what it got wrong in government before 2010, and never had a credible policy to reduce the deficit.
The party put all its eggs in one basket by assuming that the coalition’s austerity policy would be unsuccessful and unpopular. It turned out to be neither, and so Miliband’s Labour was left without a proper economic policy. There are no examples on record of a British party winning a general election despite being less trusted on the economy than its main rival and with a leader not seen as the strongest candidate to become prime minister. And the 2015 result is no exception. Labour must learn that lesson.
Competence goes beyond economic policy, however. On immigration, Labour toughened its policy under Miliband, but again, it lacked credibility. This is particularly dangerous for Labour because UKIP finished second in a swathe of northern Labour seats, and may launch a serious challenge in 2020.
Working-class voters are most concerned with immigration, and they are more likely than other groups to vote for UKIP. To retain their support, Labour must show that it at least understands their concerns, even if it doesn’t argue for a “fortress UK”.
Party image is the third area where Labour suffered. The 2015 election demonstrated once again that it is very difficult to win from the left, and that capturing the centre-ground remains crucial to electoral success. Under Miliband, Labour was seen to shift quite sharply to the left, compared with the Blair years. It came to be seen as anti-business, pro-state intervention, close to the unions, and pro-tax-and-spend.
Individual policies such as capping energy prices may have been popular in isolation, but they fed into the image of a left-wing party, which ultimately proved damaging. This is not to say that New Labour should be resurrected – that brand is too tarnished. But Labour must once again be a party that understands the aspirations of working-class and middle-class voters.
Some have suggested following the leftist strategy of the SNP as a road to electoral success. But the SNP succeeded primarily because it made the independence question the key dividing line in Scottish politics. If Scotland becomes independent after any second referendum, Labour will be forced to confront its weaknesses in England, which is more right-leaning. If Scotland remains in the UK, Labour would have to show that it would defend Scotland’s interests at Westminster.
Scotland may look a lost cause for Labour after the SNP’s success, but that could change. Quebec separatists routinely dominated Canadian federal elections (held under first-past-the-post) within their province after two defeated independence referendums, usually winning two-thirds of Quebec’s 75 seats. But they eventually declined, and at the last Canadian federal election, won just four seats after the separatist tide had ebbed.
If Labour is to revitalise itself in opposition, it needs to look at why it lost. Blaming a hostile media or Tory dirty tricks will be comforting, but won’t help the party move forward. “One more heave” doesn’t usually work for parties that have suffered heavy defeats. The best thing that could happen would be for a full and frank party-wide discussion of all the options for the next parliament. That debate, at least, does appear to be starting.
Tom Quinn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.
READ MORE
It's widely claimed that a bad diet leads to 70,000 premature deaths a year in the UK. But it's difficult to find a reliable source for this figure.
The post Wanted: evidence that a bad diet causes 70,000 premature deaths every year appeared first on Full Fact.
READ MORE
The post School places: are we running out? appeared first on Full Fact.
READ MORE
We've factchecked claims from Prime Minister's Questions on all things NHS, as well as the armed forces covenant, housing benefit and adoption figures.
The post The NHS, the military covenant and adoptions: factchecking Prime Minister’s Questions appeared first on Full Fact.
READ MORE
Jeremy Hunt and Andy Burnham have debated the cause of rising spending on temporary nurses. We check their claims on spending, nurse numbers, and Mid Staffs
The post Nurse shortages: factchecking the last government’s record appeared first on Full Fact.
READ MORE
The Department of Health has revealed it will introduce measures which should mean if a claim can’t be quickly substantiated it won’t make it into a speech.
The post Department of Health to speed up responses to media and Full Fact appeared first on Full Fact.
READ MORE
"Marathon runners are the best in bed," is the spurious claim in Metro.
The headline is based on a study that only looked at long-distance runners’ finger ratios – said to be a marker for high testosterone levels – not reported partner sexual satisfaction (or as other sources report, high sperm counts and "reproductive fitness").
The study is based on the concept of what is known as 2D:4D ratio – a measurement of the ratio between the length of the index finger (second digit) and the ring finger (fourth digit).
Previous research suggests that men with a low 2D:4D ratio (when their ring finger is comparatively longer) may have been exposed to higher levels of testosterone in the womb, which is linked to the potential for reproductive success.
Researchers wanted to see if running prowess in males could be a sign of their evolutionary reproductive potential (as measured by their 2D:4D ratio).
They found that men with more "masculine" digit ratios – i.e. longer ring fingers – did better in the 2013 Robin Hood half marathon in Nottingham than those with the "least masculine" ratios. The same link was found in women, albeit to a lesser degree.
Researchers did not look at whether these more "masculine" men were judged to be more attractive by women.
The study was carried out by researchers from the University of Cambridge and the Institute of Child Health, London. There was no external funding.
The study was published in the peer-reviewed medical journal PLOS ONE. This is an open-access journal, so the study is free to read online.
Reporting of this study by the UK media was almost universally poor, with many sources making claims that were not supported by the study:
At least the Daily Mirror and Huffington Post tempered their coverage with a "may" and a "probably".
None of the media coverage made it clear that the study was using running ability as a proxy for hunting prowess in pre-agricultural societies and had little or nothing to do with modern relationships.
This was an observational study that aimed to test the researchers' theory that physical prowess at endurance running is associated with male reproductive fitness. In this study, the researchers used the digit ratio to predict reproductive success. This is the ratio between index and ring finger, which is a marker of hormone exposure in the womb.
The researchers explain that the high value placed by females on male ability to acquire resources has been well documented, especially in pre-industrial societies. Before agriculture developed, hunting ability may have provided an important way of demonstrating male resourcefulness and seems to be linked to fertility, offspring survivorship and number of mates.
There are several theories that try to explain this link; one is that hunting success is a reliable signal for underlying traits such as athleticism, intelligence or generosity in distributing meat.
In “Persistence Hunting” – one of the earliest forms of human hunting – prey often required running for long distances. This may act as a reliable signal of reproductive potential, say the researchers.
Since increased testosterone exposure in the womb is associated with reproductive success, an association between testosterone and endurance running would make running prowess a reliable signal of male reproductive potential, they argue.
The researchers recruited to their study 439 men and 103 women taking part in the Robin Hood half marathon in Nottingham in 2013. Participants ranged between the ages of 19 and 35, and were all white (Caucasian). The half marathon, they say, was chosen for its appropriateness to pre-agricultural, hunter-associated running and reflects endurance running ability.
All competitors wore small electronic chips to guarantee accurate race timings.
Photocopies were taken of the athlete’s left and right hands on finishing the race and these were used at a later date to measure the 2D:4D ratios.
The digit ratios were measured using special electronic callipers and were taken twice from each photocopy, to ensure accuracy.
The researchers then analysed the results, looking for an association between the digit ratio and the race time in each sex.
They found that among the men there was a "significant positive correlation" between right and left hand 2D:4D ratio and marathon time, with higher levels of performance associated with a lower, more "masculine", digit ratio. The correlation strengthened after controlling for age. The same was true of the female sample, but to a lesser degree.
The researchers say their results support the theory that endurance running ability may signal reproductive potential in men through its association with prenatal exposure to testosterone. Running prowess they suggest, could act as a reliable signal for male reproductive potential.
This study of distance runners and their digit ratios, and the possible relationship between successful hunting and male reproductive potential, is a little tenuous.
This was an observational study using long-distance runners as a proxy for hunters and digit ratio as a proxy for reproductive potential. The most it can show is an association between the two.
It should also be noted that:
This is an interesting study, but does not prove that long-distance runners are more fertile or more attractive.
Ways to increase your fertility levels include stopping smoking, drinking alcohol in moderation and maintaining a healthy weight through healthy eating and exercise.
Analysis by Bazian. Edited by NHS Choices. Follow Behind the Headlines on Twitter. Join the Healthy Evidence forum.
Marathon runners are the best in bed. Metro, April 8 2015
Why long-distance runners make the best partners. The Daily Telegraph, April 8 2015
Male long-distance runners may find it easier to attract women. Daily Mirror, April 8 2015
How long distance running makes men attractive: Those who run endurance races get more dates and have a higher sex drive. Mail Online, April 8 2015
Male Long-Distance Runners Are (Probably) More Attractive To Women, Says Science. The Huffington Post, April 8 2015
Longman D, Well JCK, Stock JT. Can Persistence Hunting Signal Male Quality? A Test Considering Digit Ratio in Endurance Athletes. PLOS One. Published online April 8 2015
The Daily Mirror today reports that, “taking ibuprofen every day could extend your life by up to 12 YEARS”. The Daily Express also has a similar front page headline, while the Mail Online suggests that these extra years would be of “good quality life”.
If you read these headlines and felt sceptical, you’d be right to do so.
The news has been extrapolated to humans, based on research in yeast, microscopic worms and fruit flies. These organisms are often used in longevity research due to their naturally short lifespans – even the longest-lived among them is measured in days, not decades.
However, if a chemical does extend lifespan in these relatively simple organisms, this is not a guarantee that it will do the same in more complex organisms, such as mammals. We also have no idea whether any extension of life would be of “good quality”.
Even in the fruit flies, the effect was more complicated than in yeast or worms. Ibuprofen increased the flies’ average lifespan, but actually reduced the maximum lifespan in male flies.
We’re definitely not at a stage where taking ibuprofen every day could be recommended as a way to extend your lifespan. While some people might think “what harm can it do?" and "it might do some good”, ibuprofen is not risk-free. As with most drugs, ibuprofen can cause side effects, including gastrointestinal bleeding.
The study was carried out by researchers from the Buck Institute for Research on Aging, and universities in the US and Russia. It was funded by the US National Institutes of Health and National Science Foundation.
The study was published in the peer-reviewed, open access journal PLOS Genetics.
The newspapers’ headlines are unwarranted over-extrapolations of this animal and laboratory research. Most later clarified that the research was in yeast, worms and flies – but read in isolation, the headlines are misleading.
This seems an irresponsible approach, given the potential harm that could result from people taking a cheap and readily-available drug unnecessarily.
This was an animal and laboratory study looking at whether ibuprofen increases lifespan in flies, worms and yeast.
The researchers say that ibuprofen has been associated with a reduction in the risk of some age-related problems such as Alzheimer’s disease and Parkinson’s disease. However, whether it also has an effect on lifespan is unknown.
The organisms used in this study are often used in studies of lifespan, as their lives are short. This means that researchers can quickly find out if a chemical affects lifespan. If they find the same effect on lifespan in the multiple organisms tested, this suggests that the chemical is affecting a system that has been evolutionarily “conserved” across different organisms. This makes it more likely that the effect may also apply to other, untested, organisms.
However, flies, worms and yeast are relatively simple organisms, and things that affect their lifespans may not have the same impact on more complex organisms such as mammals. For example, while a chemical might double lifespan in a yeast, even if it also has an effect on lifespan in mice, it would be unlikely to have as dramatic an effect.
The researchers say that getting from chemicals that show promise in yeast and other organisms to drugs that are effective and safe in humans is a “significant hurdle”. For this reason, they wanted to look at a drug that was already used in humans, as they are already known to be safe enough for human use.
The researchers tested the effects of ibuprofen on one type of yeast, one type of microscopic worm, and fruit flies. In each case they exposed one group of yeast/worms/flies to ibuprofen and another group was not exposed (controls). They measured how long each group lived to see if it differed.
For yeast and worms, exposing them to ibuprofen involved growing them in a solution containing the drug. For yeast, the study looked at how long they were able to keep dividing to produce new yeast cells – a standard measure of their “active” lifespan. For flies, this involved feeding them with a solution that included ibuprofen. The organisms were grown in standard conditions, to make sure that the only thing that differed between them was whether or not they received ibuprofen.
The researchers then carried out a wide range of detailed experiments to determine how ibuprofen was having an effect.
The researchers found that yeast exposed to ibuprofen lived 17% longer on average than they did without it. Worms exposed to ibuprofen throughout their lives lived about 20 days, compared to about 18 days on average without ibuprofen. The researchers said that the levels of ibuprofen that extended the lifespan of worms and yeast were in the range of levels reached in people taking ibuprofen at typical doses.
In female fruit flies, ibuprofen extended the average lifespan and also the maximum lifespan. In male fruit flies, ibuprofen extended the average lifespan but, oddly, reduced the maximum lifespan. This meant that the shorter-lived flies were living longer with ibuprofen, but the longest-lived flies were not living as long.
The researchers found that ibuprofen seemed to be having its effect by reducing uptake of the amino acid tryptophan by cells.
The researchers concluded that their results “identify a largely safe drug that extends lifespan across different kingdoms of life” and “implicate [tryptophan] import in aging”.
The current study has found that ibuprofen can extend lifespan in yeast, worms and flies.
This does not guarantee that it will extend the lives of humans – or indeed other animals more complex than flies. Even if a chemical was to have an effect on mammals, it would be unlikely to be as great an effect as in the simpler organisms that have been tested.
The results of the study themselves point to a more complicated story as organisms get more complex. While average lifespan was extended in all of the organisms, in male fruit flies (but not females) maximum lifespan was actually reduced with ibuprofen.
Doubtless these findings will lead to more research, as ways to fight the ravages of ageing are among the “holy grails” of drug development. The researchers point out in the news that there is probably already data available from observational studies in humans that could be used to assess whether ibuprofen use is associated with increased lifespan.
If you’re tempted to take a daily ibuprofen to extend your life because they’re cheap and readily available – don’t!
Ibuprofen, while safe enough for human consumption, is not risk-free. As with most drugs it can cause side effects, including gastrointestinal bleeding. While the benefits are likely to outweigh the harms for people taking the drug in the short term for its intended uses (such as pain relief), this is not the case when taking the drug on a daily basis for an unproven, and potentially non-existent, benefit.
Analysis by Bazian. Edited by NHS Choices. Follow Behind the Headlines on Twitter. Join the Healthy Evidence forum.
Is Ibuprofen the key to a longer life? Study finds it may provide 12 extra years of good health. Mail Online, December 18 2014
Taking ibuprofen every day could extend your life by up to 12 YEARS. Daily Mirror, December 18 2014
Ibuprofen adds 12 years to life! Cheap painkillers can slow ageing and fight disease. Daily Express, December 19 2014
Could ibuprofen be key to anti-ageing? Study finds painkiller extends life of flies and worms by equivalent of 12 human years. The Independent, December 19 2014
Hangover cure may aid a longer life. The Daily Telegraph, December 19 2014
He C, et al. Enhanced Longevity by Ibuprofen, Conserved in Multiple Species, Occurs in Yeast through Inhibition of Tryptophan Import. PLOS Genetics. Published December 18 2014
The post Did the VAT rise cost families £450 a year? appeared first on Full Fact.
READ MORE
A legal case on parental fines for taking children out of school for holidays wasn't the landmark it was reported to be last month—but might turn out to be.
The post “Holiday fines” case heads to High Court appeared first on Full Fact.
READ MORE
In the last five years, austerity has undermined our public services, lowered the living standards of working people, pushed more children into poverty and held back economic growth.
Nicola Sturgeon, Scottish first minister and Scottish National Party leader at the party’s manifesto launch.
It is easiest to start at the end. Conventional macroeconomics would agree that fiscal austerity and cuts to government spending did hold back growth. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimate that austerity reduced growth by 1% in each of the financial years 2010-11 and 2011-12. In the graph below, the orange bars show the impacts on growth of austerity expected in 2010 and the blue bar how they have changed. Others have higher estimates.
The key point here is that because short-term interest rates had fallen as far as the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England thought they could go (0.5%), monetary policy was not able to offset the impact of fiscal contraction – cuts to government spending, or austerity. Instead, monetary policy had to resort to Quantitative Easing: creating money to buy long term assets in order to put downward pressure on long term interest rates. Quantitative Easing probably had some effect on the growth rate, but almost certainly not enough to counter the impact of fiscal austerity.
Lower growth caused by fiscal austerity would normally mean one of two things: higher unemployment or lower living standards. An unusual feature of the past five years is how quickly unemployment has fallen, even though GDP growth has not been strong. As a result, the main impact of lower growth – including that caused by fiscal austerity – has been on living standards.
Fiscal austerity has involved reduced public spending in many areas, including welfare payments. The general consensus among economists such as those at the Institute for Fiscal Studies is that fiscal consolidation has hit two groups more than most: the rich and the poor. It is therefore reasonable to say austerity in itself has increased child poverty. As living standards have fallen generally, then relative levels of poverty in general – which measure the poverty gap – have not increased over the last few years, although absolute levels of poverty have. However, Sturgeon is careful in her statement to talk about the impact of fiscal austerity.
The assertion that fiscal austerity has “undermined our public services” comes close to being a tautology. To suggest otherwise you would have to argue that spending less on public services has only increased the efficiency with which they were delivered.
Nicola Sturgeon’s statement on the economic impact of austerity on the UK is correct, with no qualifications.
I don’t have any major disagreements with the author’s analysis. There are two particular provisos that may be worth raising. The first is that the stagnation in standards of living under the coalition period (and from before that) partly reflects the UK’s very poor productivity performance at this time. It could be argued that this largely reflects austerity: had demand been higher, companies would have been able to sell more which would probably have resulted in higher productivity. For example, if a factory is idle, workers are under-employed or not able to get jobs in relatively high productivity sectors because of lack of demand. Alternatively the author may simply be arguing the austerity isn’t the only problem here, but it is one problem and so Sturgeon is correct.
Second, Sturgeon’s comment about child poverty might be worthy of some specific reference to what has happened to it. It is not my particular area of expertise, but the previous decline in child poverty appears to have been reversed around 2011, although has remained flat since, and this may be worth noting.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.
READ MORE
Peter Sutherland of the UN is right that the UK receives fewer asylum seekers than other EU countries, but not as few as BBC listeners were led to believe.
The post UN wrong on asylum seekers in Britain appeared first on Full Fact.
READ MORE
“Mr Speaker, according to Sheffield Hallam University study, one in five claimants that have been sanctioned became homeless as a result of it.”
Jeremy Corbyn, 2 November 2016
This is missing an important caveat.
The study that Jeremy Corbyn is referring to only looked at people who were using homelessness services. The proportion of people who lose their job after being sanctioned is likely to be smaller than this—even though the report he’s referring to does suggest a link between welfare sanctions and becoming homeless.
People are offered welfare payments on certain conditions, such as spending a certain amount of time looking for a job. They can be sanctioned with a reduction in their payments if they don’t comply. Payments can also be stopped altogether. Sanctions have been more widely used in recent years, especially since 2012.
The report he’s referring to interviewed 548 people using homelessness services who were receiving welfare between February and April 2015. It found that 213 of them had been sanctioned in the previous year, so about 39%.
About half of the people who had been sanctioned said that it made it harder to keep their home.
45 said they lost their home as a result of a sanction. That’s about a fifth of the 213 who had been sanctioned, and that’s where the figure comes from.
Since the survey invited responses from people using homelessness services, it’s likely that a smaller proportion of all people who are sanctioned then become homeless.
But the report suggests a link.
READ MORE
“The problem the government have got is this. They’ve said, look, we’re opted out. We’re not going to be forced into the EU’s Common Asylum Policy”—Nigel Farage, 20 May 2015 Although UK was included in earlier EU moves towards a more consistent approach to granting asylum- basically, allowing people to stay in the UK if […]
The post The UK and the EU’s asylum policy appeared first on Full Fact.
READ MORE
The post Factcheck: Is Miliband mistaken on EU gas emissions? appeared first on Full Fact.
READ MORE
Muslim women should be allowed to wear the veil in court, top judge suggests—Daily Telegraph, 17 April 2015 Britain’s top judge says Muslim women should be allowed to wear veil in court—Daily Express, 17 April 2015 A speech given by the President of the Supreme Court on 10 April has lead to claims that the judge supports allowing Muslim […]
The post Lord Neuberger unveiled? appeared first on Full Fact.
READ MORE
